BOM FOLLIES

Last week the Fairfax press, specifically the Sydney Morning Herald, published an interesting map showing the temperature forecast for the following Monday 14th of January 2013. Note the date and the link to the graph.

BOM Forecast 14 Jan

Bureau Of Meteorology Weather Chart | Deep Purple

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/temperatures-off-the-charts-as-australia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html

Screen clipping taken: 8/01/2013 1:50 PM

Now have a look at the ACTUAL measured temperature for the 14th of January 2013.

BOM Actual 14 Jan

Climate Maps – Temperature Latest

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Screen clipping taken: 15/01/2013 6:05 PM

Comments:

  1. Think of the two maps representing a mineral drilling target with the conspicuous bulls-eye in the forecast being the basis for an optimistic stock exchange announcement that you, the mining entrepreneur will be hitting a whopper of a mine.

    However if you actually went and drilled that bulls-eye, you would have intersected nothing, nada, zip as shown by the second diagram! And you certainly would not have publicised the second map showing your results either; the embarrassment would have been more than acute.

  2. Much ado was made over the BOM’s necessity to add another colour level to its map legend to allow the plotting of temperatures up to 54 degrees Celsius. The actual maximum seems to have been about 10 degrees Celsius lower than the forecasted temperature, 45 versus 54. This forecasting error is somewhat larger than the maximum forecasted temperature for distant future, 2050, 6 degrees Celsius.
  3. There is only one scientific reason why this particular forecast is so laughably wrong, even after the billions of taxpayers money thrown at the problem, and that it is most likely the basics physics describing the weather and hence climate, is wrong.

There is only one description for this forecasting folly – intellectual and scientific incompetence. You would never be allowed to get away with this is in the mining industry.

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About Louis Hissink

Retired exploration geologist
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